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119 articles
Hormuz Watch: When Tensions Eased, Airlines Rose 37% to 54%. Refiners Barely Moved.
Part 5 of 5. A deal proposal, a blockade and a strike plan were all in the news this week. What each way out of the war did to the tanker owners, refiners, airlines and truckers in this series the last time, and what has changed since.
Read articleHormuz Watch: Heating Oil Is Up 52%. Airfares, 23%. Groceries, 2%.
Part 4 of 5. The fuel shock lands hardest on whoever burns fuel directly and cannot pass the cost on: households heating with oil, farmers at harvest and independent truckers. Big carriers and airlines are passing much of it along.
Hormuz Watch: The Refinery Repairs Run Into 2027. So Do the Profit Forecasts.
Part 3 of 5. Some refinery damage will not be repaired until 2027, and analysts now expect the largest refiners to earn about four times their 2025 profits next year. The stocks trade at about twice their 2022 multiples.
Hormuz Watch: The Rate Is $1.2 Million a Day. The Ships Earn About $155,000.
Part 2 of 5. The benchmark rate to hire a supertanker hit $1.22 million a day, nearly six times prewar. Owners booked about $155,000, and the stock and charter markets are pricing the boom as temporary.
Hormuz Watch: Crude Came Back. Refined Fuel Didn’t.
Part 1 of 5. Crude is crossing the Strait of Hormuz at prewar levels again. Refined fuel is down 81%, Russia and China have pulled diesel off the market, and the refining margin sits near $114 a barrel.
Read articleThe Abundance Pitch Has a Maui Problem
Elon Musk says AI abundance will make saving irrelevant, and that Tesla will be worth $25 trillion. A share is a claim on money. Both cannot be true. What abundance already did to prices, who owns the stock market, and 33 houses for sale on Maui.
The Case for EOG Resources: The Lowest-Cost Barrel, Priced Like an Average One
The lowest-cost operator in American shale just posted record free cash flow and returned over $1.8 billion in a single quarter. The platform rates it Deep Value with 58% upside while Wall Street shrugs. The data makes the case.
Battle Stocks: McDonald's vs. Starbucks vs. Chipotle
Three restaurant giants recovering from a weak 2025, all priced at a premium. McDonald's has the quality, Starbucks the momentum, Chipotle the growth reputation. The data picks a winner.
Enphase Is Up 16% Since the Ban. None of It Was the Ban.
The FCC put foreign-produced connected inverters on its Covered List on July 28. The order grandfathers everything already authorized, the largest foreign competitor cleared eighteen days early, and the rally that followed came from a different policy entirely.
The Case for Lululemon: The Reset Is Not the Business
Lululemon is down 38 percent this year while its China business grew 30 percent. The platform scores it Strong, Deep Value, and Bullish. The reset looks like a tariff and traffic problem, not a broken business.
Three Moderate Scores, One 62% Upside
AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile all posted strong quarters. The platform rates all three Moderate with a Neutral outlook. Only one carries a fair value gap the model can be trusted to publish.
The Five: 1,026 Healthcare Names, 9 Clear the Data
Healthcare looks like a mild laggard until you open it up. A 1,026-name scan finds 82% of the sector scoring Weak or Avoid, exactly nine names clearing all three gates, and the sub-sector that ran hardest holding the fewest the engine likes.
DoorDash: Growth the Income Statement Keeps Refusing
DoorDash grew revenue 36% last quarter and GAAP profit fell 30%. The stock trades near 100 times trailing earnings while operating margins compress and the take rate stalls.
The S-1 Scorecard
In May we graded the SpaceX prospectus. On August 4 the company reported. Revenue beat by 880 million dollars, losses narrowed, and the stock fell 11 percent on 18.37 billion dollars of capital expenditure. Every claim, graded.
The Case for Logitech: Ten Quarters of Growth, Priced for One Quarter of Trouble
An investment thesis for Logitech (LOGI). The peripherals leader just posted its tenth consecutive quarter of growth with earnings up 47%, and the market repriced it over a temporary, quantified supply disruption. The platform rates it Strong, Undervalued by about 28%, and Bullish.
Battle Stocks: Visa vs. Mastercard
Visa and Mastercard are the two highest strength scores this series has ever scanned, separated by two tenths of a point. Both just beat. Both trade far above fair value. The closest battle yet gets a verdict.
The Five: The Chip Selloff, Measured
Semiconductors fell as much as 40% and the dip buyers are circling. A 39-name scan finds the outlook engine held Bullish on exactly six names through the wreck, and five clear the valuation test: CRUS, MU, QCOM, NXPI, NVDA.
Wayfair: A Momentum Trade on a Balance Sheet That Never Turned
Wayfair has rallied roughly 70% in ten weeks on card-data optimism and an AI retail narrative. Underneath: one annual GAAP profit since 2014, negative shareholder equity, and negative free cash flow.
Battle Stocks: Home Depot vs. Lowe’s
Home Depot is the first Bearish-rated stock ever to headline a battle. The market protected it anyway and punished the challenger. The data says the two-decade hierarchy just flipped.
The Five: Where the Rotation Went
Semiconductors are off 16% from the June high and financials caught the money. A 50-name scan finds five setups the data favors: JPM, BAC, MTB, CFG, HIG. The deepest value sits where the rotation has not arrived yet.
The $1 Billion Quarter That Wasn't
Tesla reported $1.11 billion in GAAP net income for Q2 2026. A $1.005 billion unrealized SpaceX gain did most of the work. Strip the paper and the dying regulatory credits, and the core business earned roughly nothing.
The Case for Incyte: Priced for the Patent Cliff, Growing Right Through It
An investment thesis for Incyte (INCY). The market discounts the stock for the 2028 Jakafi patent cliff, while the business underneath grows revenue 21%, its ex-Jakafi portfolio 63%, and funds ten Phase 3 programs with $4 billion in cash. The platform rates it Elite, Undervalued, and Bullish.
Intel: Priced Like the Foundry Already Won
Intel is up more than 400% in a year on the most celebrated turnaround in tech. The foundry that justifies the price still loses $2.5 billion a quarter, and no marquee external customer has committed volume.
Hormuz Watch: The Tail Becomes the Base Case
Two weeks ago the trigger fired. Now the Strait is effectively closed under a naval blockade, Brent has topped $91 and is testing $100, and the oil waiver is gone. The escalation scenario is no longer the tail. It is the base case.
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